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Jan 24, 2013
01/13
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we know the consumer confidence took a six-month hit because of the debt ceiling fight. so, to take that off the table as a big washington fight helps a lot, i think. >> certainly, the markets, a lot of people pointing to one reason, you have had a pretty nice string of gains here that debate, at least the deadline pushed back a bit. where does the conversation now begin when it comes to real reform? who instigate it is and how constructive do you think it's going to be? >> i think we can build upon some of the previous efforts. we had an agreement in 2011 which allowed us to reduce spending and we can do that again. at the end to of this year so the called fiscal cliff deal i think was further evidence when you get 89 united states senators voting for that end of the year agree respect, the deal was perfect and had all kinds of frustrations associated with it, but we have to keep building upon what is some good developments in bipartisan consensus. i can't speak to the house but i think there is a willingness on both sides senate to build on those efforts. >> what do yo
we know the consumer confidence took a six-month hit because of the debt ceiling fight. so, to take that off the table as a big washington fight helps a lot, i think. >> certainly, the markets, a lot of people pointing to one reason, you have had a pretty nice string of gains here that debate, at least the deadline pushed back a bit. where does the conversation now begin when it comes to real reform? who instigate it is and how constructive do you think it's going to be? >> i think...
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Jan 24, 2013
01/13
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you are looking ahead to the debt ceiling and saying another policy error could be a big market hit. what do you mean by that? >> we look can't think we are still in this leveraging scenario. it is not over. debt levels are still high in the u.s. and many developing economies. we have to bring those down to create a nice fundamental situation. that provides a lot of opportunity for policymakers to make mistakes or mess things up. and the extension in front of -- a sequester coming. the extension of the budgets for the coming year, in europe we still have spain refinancing 20% of gdp in debt, more than enough opportunities, that is not a best case. >> you are talking about the united states, the worst enemy at this point. to get these jobless claims at week 5-year lows, nice to see but if unemployment is at 10%, in range for 2013, and it will take 1/2% of of the gdp, no jobs, don't even have an economic recovery and no jobs. >> not necessarily a bad economy, we are in an okay economy, not great because 1/2%, from a fiscal austerity coming through the pike, the job situation is improvi
you are looking ahead to the debt ceiling and saying another policy error could be a big market hit. what do you mean by that? >> we look can't think we are still in this leveraging scenario. it is not over. debt levels are still high in the u.s. and many developing economies. we have to bring those down to create a nice fundamental situation. that provides a lot of opportunity for policymakers to make mistakes or mess things up. and the extension in front of -- a sequester coming. the...
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Jan 25, 2013
01/13
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ceiling, any of the debt ceiling rate of points that have come up, those are negative in terms of increasing uncertainty. those are going to cause more hesitation in hiring. those are going to slow employment growth below what it would otherwise be, and those are not helpful to the economic recovery or, as you say, congressman, to the budget. >> so in essence, we're kind of kidding ourselves -- [laughter] about being able without creating jobs to solve economic problems, that just making decisions to shift thoughts and ideas and processes and at the end of the day there's still in more people working? >> you need an economic recovery, congressman, for everything else that you want to do, and that requires jobs to come back to where they were. we're still at least 3% below peak employment pre-financial crisis. this is the longest, worst recession in american history since the 1930s. >> thank you very much. thank you -- >> thank you. mr. griffin's recognized for five minutes. >> thank you, mr. chairman. thank you all for testifying today. i want to be really clear as well. i haven't heard any
ceiling, any of the debt ceiling rate of points that have come up, those are negative in terms of increasing uncertainty. those are going to cause more hesitation in hiring. those are going to slow employment growth below what it would otherwise be, and those are not helpful to the economic recovery or, as you say, congressman, to the budget. >> so in essence, we're kind of kidding ourselves -- [laughter] about being able without creating jobs to solve economic problems, that just making...
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Jan 29, 2013
01/13
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let's take a look at the next idea about the debt ceiling debate. i think this is a really important finding here, guys. we ask do you think congress is going to increase the debt ceiling every time it's reached, refuse to raise it at some point and don't know? you can see 86% are saying that congress will raise the debt ceiling every time it's reached this year, when i think about some of the reasons why stocks have gotten higher because i think that thread along with the fiscal cliff has come out of the market and that there's overwhelming sentiment that coss i solve the get problem. we asked wall street to grade our treasury secretary going out and one coming in. you can see a pretty strong sentiment that he was a seed secretary with a 2.2. jack lew, the sentiment there. 2.0. one more thing on the deficit i just want to say and maybe this is worthy of discussion here. i think this is a sign that things have improved, at these economists and guys on wall street are saying we should solve the deficit and do it now. i think if things were as bad as
let's take a look at the next idea about the debt ceiling debate. i think this is a really important finding here, guys. we ask do you think congress is going to increase the debt ceiling every time it's reached, refuse to raise it at some point and don't know? you can see 86% are saying that congress will raise the debt ceiling every time it's reached this year, when i think about some of the reasons why stocks have gotten higher because i think that thread along with the fiscal cliff has come...
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Jan 28, 2013
01/13
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at the same time, they've pushed off the debt ceiling for a few months. so the body language out of washington has been more constellatory. so when you get to this point where you think about what the deficit might look like this year, i don't think you're going to be looking at a balanced budget so soon. you can't sustain trillion dollar deficiter year after year after year doubling the debt so many years and still think that the market is going to accept that over time. they know the market needs to move away from this, but it's going to away longer process. >> kevin and mike will be with us for the rest of the hour. >> and it's time for the global markets report. kelly evans is standing by in london. i could string up a lot of thing to talk to you about, kelly. you're very close to davos. i don't know. we -- i don't really feel like i've missed anything, really. but you're still close. you could have jetted over there easily and joined in with, you know, john legend and charlie thero this e, andrew ross sorkin. >> i was hoping maybe some of those peopl
at the same time, they've pushed off the debt ceiling for a few months. so the body language out of washington has been more constellatory. so when you get to this point where you think about what the deficit might look like this year, i don't think you're going to be looking at a balanced budget so soon. you can't sustain trillion dollar deficiter year after year after year doubling the debt so many years and still think that the market is going to accept that over time. they know the market...
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Jan 24, 2013
01/13
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also powering the rally, news that washington lawmakers passed a short term debt ceiling deal. the u.s. house of representatives gave the okay to a republican plan to suspend the debt limit until may 19. democrats in the senate now say they'll pass it too. darren gersh reports. >> reporter: the debt ceiling suspension came with a couple strings attached. if senate democrats don't pass a budget-- something they haven't done for four years-- members of congress won't get paid until they do. >> this bill simply says, "congress, do your job." when i grew up in wisconsin, if you had a job and you did the work, then you got paid. if you didn't do the work, you didn't get paid. it's that simple. >> house democrats called the pay ploy a gimmick and said a 90 day reprieve from default simply moves the crisis back. >> for the last two years, we've heard from our republican colleagues economic uncertainty is bad for the economy. guess what? it is. and yet that's exactly what you are doing. another big dose of economic uncertainty. >> reporter: republicans shifted gears on the debt ceiling
also powering the rally, news that washington lawmakers passed a short term debt ceiling deal. the u.s. house of representatives gave the okay to a republican plan to suspend the debt limit until may 19. democrats in the senate now say they'll pass it too. darren gersh reports. >> reporter: the debt ceiling suspension came with a couple strings attached. if senate democrats don't pass a budget-- something they haven't done for four years-- members of congress won't get paid until they do....
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Jan 25, 2013
01/13
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debt ceiling change, they had to promise that paul ryan was going to produce a budget in a week that would balance the budget in ten years with no revenue increases. >> right. >> now, when you see what is going to happen to spending in order to meet those numbers, i'd like to see her go out there and say, this is the kind of thing the republican party should get behind and run behind because it's going to be ugly. >> richard wolffe, mary matalin is positive. there aren't a lot of republicans right now who are given what's happened. but again, we see shifts in party allegiances fairly quickly. it just does seem like my party is suffering a long-term letdown. to say the least. >> yeah. look, mary has a strong character, as we all know. the truth is that the president actually won and he won pretty big for his ideas. i didn't -- by the way, the president talking about cap and trade in his inaugural. he didn't say how he would address climate change. he said we have to address the impact of it. the question for republicans, i think, is what's the big idea? and it is what you keep advocat
debt ceiling change, they had to promise that paul ryan was going to produce a budget in a week that would balance the budget in ten years with no revenue increases. >> right. >> now, when you see what is going to happen to spending in order to meet those numbers, i'd like to see her go out there and say, this is the kind of thing the republican party should get behind and run behind because it's going to be ugly. >> richard wolffe, mary matalin is positive. there aren't a lot...
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Jan 31, 2013
01/13
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. >> what if lawmakers decide it was best to delay having to debate raising the debt ceiling? >> well, a decision by house republican leaders at their retreat about two weeks ago. they tried in 2011 to use the debt limit as a leverage point of force obama to swallow big spending cuts. it worked, but it was terribly damaging, but the the nation's economy and to their political capital. congressional plummeted to something like 9 percent. and they recognize that this was a bad idea. gambling with the faith and credit of the united states it turns out as a pretty bad idea. we were downgraded for the first time in the nation's history. they did not want to do that again. like us said, they did not want to vote for a bigger national debt either. that does not fit with their philosophy, so they came up with this strategy of saying, okay, we will suspend it. in the meantime, we really want the senate to pass a budget for 2014, and the law also says that if either chamber fails to adopt the budget by april 15th, their paychecks will be docked. so the whole idea of this thing is to a p
. >> what if lawmakers decide it was best to delay having to debate raising the debt ceiling? >> well, a decision by house republican leaders at their retreat about two weeks ago. they tried in 2011 to use the debt limit as a leverage point of force obama to swallow big spending cuts. it worked, but it was terribly damaging, but the the nation's economy and to their political capital. congressional plummeted to something like 9 percent. and they recognize that this was a bad idea....
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Jan 28, 2013
01/13
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ceiling. how that turns out will probably dictate how 2013 happens for cat piller and maybe for the world. >> despite the cautious outlook, shares of cat are trading higher. is now the time to buy that name? 90 seconds to make the case. why is now the time. >> i like this for macro ropeses and micro. 60% of revenues are overseas. and 27% in asia. an opportunity there. u.s. construction, 25% market share, leading here. micro, doing as best they can in a challenging environment. in incremental margins better than expected. in the fourth quarter expect more throughout the year. i think guidance of $7 on the low end was no worse than expected. >> what's the problem then? >> first of all, the stock is up 20% since december 16th. i don't think what we heard about earnings or guidance justifies more than that. this is a great company. don't think it will out-perform the market. the only reason you own an individual stock because it out-performs average stock. $17 is given and they don't give us quart
ceiling. how that turns out will probably dictate how 2013 happens for cat piller and maybe for the world. >> despite the cautious outlook, shares of cat are trading higher. is now the time to buy that name? 90 seconds to make the case. why is now the time. >> i like this for macro ropeses and micro. 60% of revenues are overseas. and 27% in asia. an opportunity there. u.s. construction, 25% market share, leading here. micro, doing as best they can in a challenging environment. in...
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Jan 28, 2013
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i mean, they've extended the issue at hand right now. >> right. >> that being the debt ceiling. >> the debt ceiling is a big issue. the fiscal cliff was a big issue on the tax side. we've extended the debt ceiling to may. that really could be july. i don't know that they represent the risks that a lot of people thought was represented in august 2011 heading into it. we realize hindsight, yields did not spike dramatically. we didn't get a massive number of investors whether it was institutions, pension funds that were forced out of treasuries. because of that aaa rating gone. i think we learned some lessons. but i still think unfortunately washington and the ranker and the political system remains one of them. >> it sounds you're not as worried about washington. >> we're sadly becoming immune to their antics. >> we'll leave it there. good to see you. thank you so much. >>> about ten minutes to go before we close it up on monday on wall street here. dow jones industrial average still hanging in just below 13,900. >>> well, it has been the feud that continues to be the buzz on wall street
i mean, they've extended the issue at hand right now. >> right. >> that being the debt ceiling. >> the debt ceiling is a big issue. the fiscal cliff was a big issue on the tax side. we've extended the debt ceiling to may. that really could be july. i don't know that they represent the risks that a lot of people thought was represented in august 2011 heading into it. we realize hindsight, yields did not spike dramatically. we didn't get a massive number of investors whether it...
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Feb 1, 2013
02/13
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. >> whited lawmakers decided his best to delay the debt ceiling? >> about two weeks ago they tried in 2011 to use the debt and then as a leverage point to force obama to swallow spending cuts. it worked, but it is terribly damaging to the nation's economy and their political capital. with something like 90% in august of 2011 and they recognize this is a bad idea. thing is a pretty bad idea of a downgrade for the first time. they didn't want to do that again, but they didn't want to vote for a thicker national debt either. that doesn't care what their philosophy to pick them up with a strategy and in the meantime we want the senate to pass a budget for 2014 and the law says if either chamber fails a budget, paychecks will be docked. the whole idea is to postpone the economy default situation until the prosecutor at the continuing fight over taxes and then made to a point where both sides are satisfied in the debt limit can be raised again. >> how a template of a increasing the deficit in effect the economy and financial markets? >> where do you know
. >> whited lawmakers decided his best to delay the debt ceiling? >> about two weeks ago they tried in 2011 to use the debt and then as a leverage point to force obama to swallow spending cuts. it worked, but it is terribly damaging to the nation's economy and their political capital. with something like 90% in august of 2011 and they recognize this is a bad idea. thing is a pretty bad idea of a downgrade for the first time. they didn't want to do that again, but they didn't want to...
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Jan 29, 2013
01/13
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the debt ceiling debate has been delayed for three months no. reason why the market can't keep running at this point just because there's no obvious catalyst to run into, but at some point, whether it's the revenue growth or something out of washington, you know, i think we'll -- we're due for a pause if not outright correction. >> fundamentals matter. >> sooner or later they do. >> please, go ahead. >> just going to mention two cautionary notes here. even though i'm pretty constructive on the economy i'll give you a good reason to worry about april sis the sequestering right? i think markets have gotten very comfortable with the washington dysfunction going on because they keep going up at the deadline and then fix the problem without damage to the economy and my sense is sequester happening, $100 billion out of the economy, is actually on the high side and i don't think that's built into the market and the other thing, the last time the market was at these levels, the size of the economy was only a little bit smaller than it was now, profits a
the debt ceiling debate has been delayed for three months no. reason why the market can't keep running at this point just because there's no obvious catalyst to run into, but at some point, whether it's the revenue growth or something out of washington, you know, i think we'll -- we're due for a pause if not outright correction. >> fundamentals matter. >> sooner or later they do. >> please, go ahead. >> just going to mention two cautionary notes here. even though i'm...
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Jan 24, 2013
01/13
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ceiling. on the other hand, despite all of that liquidity, we have mediocre employment growth, manufacturing data, while it has improved is still around that recessionary line of 50 and to your point around m2 that's very interesting and yet we're still at record low velocity of money. that's very scary. all this money pumped into the system is sitting on the balance sheets of banks, corporations. >> nominal gdp is starting to rise. >> slowly. >> what about the information revolution? now, you made an important point. so far why should raise taxes on investors, terrible idea. i'm hoping do no harm, maybe some small spending cuts so that's not going to be a factor. i don't see a debt default. i think that's off the table. what blt american energy revolution, what about the growth, what about the cheap natural gas and what about how that makes america so competitive? i'm only talking 2.5% growth, not 3%, 4, 5% growth. >> the fertilizer trusts are on fires. ammonia is going to be cheap, that's te
ceiling. on the other hand, despite all of that liquidity, we have mediocre employment growth, manufacturing data, while it has improved is still around that recessionary line of 50 and to your point around m2 that's very interesting and yet we're still at record low velocity of money. that's very scary. all this money pumped into the system is sitting on the balance sheets of banks, corporations. >> nominal gdp is starting to rise. >> slowly. >> what about the information...
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Jan 28, 2013
01/13
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the next thing is the debt ceiling which was a big leverage point and republicans kicked that can down the road. all you have left is the sequester. a lot of votes stores are on the sidelines worried about political risk and but a lot of political risk has been removed. tracy: you said kicked down the road but it will come back. you're talking about short-term euphoria for a while, correct? >> correct. the fed money policy is a huge driver. they're in the process of a financial repression regime where you look at different asset classes like treasury bonds. they're incredibly expensive. you don't make anything after cash. you lose money after inflation, right? tracy: right. >> what are your options? they're trying to drive people into risk assets. as investors look into high-yield bond or certain types of mortgage-backed securities they have become very rich. the only thing really left is equities. it is almost a process of elimination for investors. they end up driving equities higher. tracy: that's what we've seen in the month of january, we've seen a lot of inflows into the market.
the next thing is the debt ceiling which was a big leverage point and republicans kicked that can down the road. all you have left is the sequester. a lot of votes stores are on the sidelines worried about political risk and but a lot of political risk has been removed. tracy: you said kicked down the road but it will come back. you're talking about short-term euphoria for a while, correct? >> correct. the fed money policy is a huge driver. they're in the process of a financial repression...
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Jan 27, 2013
01/13
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delaying the debt ceiling, which i said they need to do to -- what are they buying with the few months? not bad forcing the senate to address the budget but what they are not doing, we are not having a national discussion of the medicare numbers we were talking about. we are not having a diagnostic consensus in this country. that, my god, we are going broke which gets you -- they do not go --. >> and i say one thing? the word was used "transformational" and doug said he wants to transform into more of a liberal president. where he ought to be, and we are political insiders association i would give him this political advise, he wanted to be a ronald reagan. he wanted to a transformational president. just as only nixon could go to china, only an african-american re-elected democratic president we can be the guy to take the entitlements and fix them for the long term but he doesn't want to. >> he wants to expand them and transform america. >> they will be bankrupt. >> johnson and fdr got circumstances percent of the vote. >> the new mantra, is debt doesn't matter. >> someone else's proble
delaying the debt ceiling, which i said they need to do to -- what are they buying with the few months? not bad forcing the senate to address the budget but what they are not doing, we are not having a national discussion of the medicare numbers we were talking about. we are not having a diagnostic consensus in this country. that, my god, we are going broke which gets you -- they do not go --. >> and i say one thing? the word was used "transformational" and doug said he wants to...
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Jan 31, 2013
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over all extends enforcement the of current debt ceiling through mid-may. but at that point it retroactively goes up and the bipartisan policy center says the increase will be $450 billion. call it about half a trillion so the new total will end up being around 17 trillion in federal debt, as of mid-may. that string attached to the no budget-no pay provision. house republicans who have passed budgets during the first obama term inserted this into the legislation, essentially to pressure senate democrats to pass budgets. they have not done that during obama's first term. the measure says each chamber has to pass a budget by mid-april. sured either chamber fail, its member's pay would be withheld. here is harry reid talking about it and how it comes together today. >> obviously democrats would prefer a longer suspension of the debt ceiling which would provide additional economic security and stability as we continue to find ways to decrease the deficit. raising the possibility the united states could default on its obligations every few months is not an ideal
over all extends enforcement the of current debt ceiling through mid-may. but at that point it retroactively goes up and the bipartisan policy center says the increase will be $450 billion. call it about half a trillion so the new total will end up being around 17 trillion in federal debt, as of mid-may. that string attached to the no budget-no pay provision. house republicans who have passed budgets during the first obama term inserted this into the legislation, essentially to pressure senate...
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Feb 1, 2013
02/13
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. >> why did lawmakers decide it was best to delay having to debate raising the debt ceiling? >> well, it was a decision by house republican leaders a few weeks ago. they tried in 2011 to use the debt limit as a lynch -- leverage point to force obama to swallow spending u cuts. it worked but -- [inaudible] to something like 9%. and they recognize that it was a bad idea. i mean, gambling with the credit of the united it turned out is a bad idea. we were downgraded for the first time in nation's history. they department want to do that again. like i said, i didn't want to vote for a bigger national debt either. that doesn't fit with their philosophy. they came up with the strategy of saying we're going us is fend. and in the meantime, they want the senate to pass a budget for 2014 and the law salses that -- says that if either chamber fails to adopt a budget by april 15, the paychecks will be docked. the idea of the thing is to postpone the sort of economy raddling default situation until they can prosecute the continuing fight over taxes and spending to a point where, you know,
. >> why did lawmakers decide it was best to delay having to debate raising the debt ceiling? >> well, it was a decision by house republican leaders a few weeks ago. they tried in 2011 to use the debt limit as a lynch -- leverage point to force obama to swallow spending u cuts. it worked but -- [inaudible] to something like 9%. and they recognize that it was a bad idea. i mean, gambling with the credit of the united it turned out is a bad idea. we were downgraded for the first time...
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Jan 30, 2013
01/13
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washington raised the debt ceiling at least temporarily. home sales are up, home prices up 5.5% from a year ago. the economy is still growing at a relatively slow pace. the monthly jobs report due out friday is expected to show that the unemployment numbers have not budged. >>> now to a developing story overnight. a new doping scandal in sports. this time, major league baseball. officials are investigating a report in a florida newspaper that claims that yankees star alex rodriguez, nationals pitcher gio gonzalez, and four others were sold performance-enhancing drugs in the last four years by a clinic in florida. gonzalez and rodriguez have already issued statements denying links to the clinics. our sources at espn with saying the yankees are now trying to void the remainder of alex rodriguez's contract. >>> a new revelation in the dreamliner investigation. the plane has been grounded. we've learned boeing was told about repeated problems with the batteries months before one of them caught fire in boston. however, safety regular lay laters
washington raised the debt ceiling at least temporarily. home sales are up, home prices up 5.5% from a year ago. the economy is still growing at a relatively slow pace. the monthly jobs report due out friday is expected to show that the unemployment numbers have not budged. >>> now to a developing story overnight. a new doping scandal in sports. this time, major league baseball. officials are investigating a report in a florida newspaper that claims that yankees star alex rodriguez,...
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Jan 31, 2013
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. >> the senate is expected to vote this afternoon on a bill to suspend the debt ceiling for three months, following the house. this would allow more house for debate on the fiscal issues we're facing. the senate version includes several republican amendments, though, including matching spending cuts for every dollar increase in the debt ceiling. those amendments expected to be defeated. the bill won't technically raise the debt ceiling, but it will suspend it until may 19th when it will be raised by the amount that the treasury borrows in the interim. that's how it's going to work. and markets, as we've been talking about on a tear this month with the dow having its best january in decades. but will yesterday's surprising drop in gdp reign in the bulls, it says here? let's get a read on the state of the economy. at least it wasn't a -- that kind of rein. there's three of them. anyway, joining us for the next hour is bob bruska. that's fao -- >> no. you cannot. >> fao economics. as becky said at the top, things are going to go really well or the market is going to have an '87 crash. >> i
. >> the senate is expected to vote this afternoon on a bill to suspend the debt ceiling for three months, following the house. this would allow more house for debate on the fiscal issues we're facing. the senate version includes several republican amendments, though, including matching spending cuts for every dollar increase in the debt ceiling. those amendments expected to be defeated. the bill won't technically raise the debt ceiling, but it will suspend it until may 19th when it will...
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Jan 28, 2013
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and we're not going to just keep raising the debt ceiling. we're going to make a down payment on debt reduction, and we're going to point the country in the right direction, we're going to cut spending. [applause] you know, there will be times p when conservatives disagree on the way forward. we've never marched in lockstep. that's not what we do. a healthy debate is a good and needed thing. we can deliberate in private without fighting in public. all we should ask of each other is that we give an honest account of our actions and their reasons for them. we should challenge the left, not each other. and if we take the prudent course, you know what? we'll be in really good company. our founders were men of prudence. take james madison. nowadays we call him the founder, the father of the constitution. but at the constitutional convention, he lost some key arguments. you know, he fought the plan to give each state the same number of seats in the senate. he thought it was deeply unjust. and at first he wants -- he wanted congress to be able to ve
and we're not going to just keep raising the debt ceiling. we're going to make a down payment on debt reduction, and we're going to point the country in the right direction, we're going to cut spending. [applause] you know, there will be times p when conservatives disagree on the way forward. we've never marched in lockstep. that's not what we do. a healthy debate is a good and needed thing. we can deliberate in private without fighting in public. all we should ask of each other is that we give...